Daily Forecast 2026-09-07

9:00 premarket price$719.34 (vs prior close +0.24%, Prev close $717.61)

LeanBase — no strong signal, lean is small

P(close above 9:00 price)56%

Expected close$719.4

Expected high$722.8

Expected low$715.7

Expected range0.99% (0.60–1.67%)

Gatebase

Features used5 (Missing inputs: fng)

Model versionv0.3-gates · 2026-09-07 09:15:15 ET

Posted at 09:05 ET, scored at 16:45 ET. The ledger keeps every call — misses included.

✅Scorecard

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $719.4 · range $715.7–$722.8	Open $719.35 · High $721.86 · Low $716.56 · Close $718.96 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.05%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.74% vs 0.60–1.67%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.07% Naive error 0.05%

Running tally · 40 calls scored · direction hit rate 18/40 · avg Brier vs naive 0.259 / 0.259

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Research output, not investment advice.