✅Scorecard 2026-09-21

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $728.0 · range $724.2–$731.3	Open $727.89 · High $743.22 · Low $727.81 · Close $741.47 (Close vs 9:00 price +1.87%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band✗ miss 2.14% vs 0.59–1.64%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.196 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error1.86% Naive error 1.87%

Running tally · 40 calls scored · direction hit rate 18/40 · avg Brier vs naive 0.259 / 0.259

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-10-09 · 2026-10-08 · 2026-10-07 · 2026-10-06 · 2026-10-05 · 2026-10-02 · 2026-10-01 · 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-29 · 2026-09-28 · 2026-09-25 · 2026-09-24 · 2026-09-23 · 2026-09-22 · 2026-09-18 · 2026-09-17 · 2026-09-16 · 2026-09-15 · 2026-09-14 · 2026-09-11

Research output, not investment advice.