✅Scorecard 2026-08-25

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $712.2 · range $707.6–$716.4	Open $711.22 · High $714.04 · Low $707.45 · Close $710.72 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.20%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.93% vs 0.75–2.08%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedyes

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.21% Naive error 0.20%

Running tally · 40 calls scored · direction hit rate 18/40 · avg Brier vs naive 0.259 / 0.259

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-10-09 · 2026-10-08 · 2026-10-07 · 2026-10-06 · 2026-10-05 · 2026-10-02 · 2026-10-01 · 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-29 · 2026-09-28 · 2026-09-25 · 2026-09-24 · 2026-09-23 · 2026-09-22 · 2026-09-21 · 2026-09-18 · 2026-09-17 · 2026-09-16 · 2026-09-15 · 2026-09-14

Research output, not investment advice.